Using the logic that suicide is not a mental health problem, but a gun problem, and Japan's statistics applied to the United States, our suicide rate should be 167,000 suicides per 100,000 inhabitants:
Last week, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence asserted through their Twitter account, in response to a Freakonomics podcast entitled "The Suicide Paradox", which discussed "Why is suicide more than twice as common than homicide in the U.S.?" that the reason was "Because the most vulnerable in society have easy access to guns and no mental health screening is required."
While anybody with more sense than a houseplant knows that suicide is a mental health problem, not a gun problem, and that it's no secret nations with some of the strictest civilian gun control on the planet such as Japan and South Korea have some of the highest rates of suicide in the world, I decided to look into the numbers of the countries ranking top 5 in the world in suicide rate per capita myself and see exactly what I could find.
Using GunPolicy.org, hosted by the Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, and World Health Organization Suicide Prevention reports and charts as my sources of data, what I found, while not completely surprising proves the Brady Campaign's assertions as patently false:
I will be using the most recent years where both rates of suicides and homicides were available, or no more than 1 year apart.
First, let's begin with the United States of America for perspective, which ranks #39 in number of suicides per 100,000 inhabitants at 11.3, Homicides at 4.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, and civilian gun ownership at 88.8 per 100 inhabitants.
The Suicide rate in the U.S. is 230% that of the homicide rate.
1. Lithuania:
In 2009, Lithuania topped the list of suicides per capita at 31.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, their homicide rate 8.6, and rate of civilian gun ownership of 0.7 guns per 100 inhabitants.
Lithuania's suicide rate is 366% that of it's homicide rate, yet their rate of civilian gun ownership is a mere 0.79% of ours.
If I wanted to misuse the statistics, I could reference 1999, where the suicide rate in Lithuania was 540% that of it's homicide rate.
2. South Korea
In 2009, the rate of suicide per 100,000 inhabitants of South Korea was 31.0, homicide rate in 2008 (2009 data not available) was 2.30, and rate of civilian gun ownership was 1.1 per 100 inhabitants.
South Korea's suicide rate is an amazing 1348% of it's homicide rate, yet their rate of civilian gun ownership is 1.24% of the United States'
3. Kazakhstan
in 2007 Kazakhstan's rate of suicide per 100,000 inhabitants was 26.9, their homicide rate 10.6, and rate of civilian gun ownership 1.3 per 100 inhabitants.
Kazakhstan's suicide rate is 253% that of their homicide rate, very much in line with the U.S., so you may surmise, much like the Brady Campaign does, that the rate of civilian gun ownership in Kazakhstan must be very high, yet data from the University of Sydney show it is only 1.46% that of America.
4. Belarus
The most recent data available from Belarus is from 1999, when their suicide rate was 34.4 per 100,000 inhabitants, homicide rate 9.74 per 100k, and rate of civilian gun ownership a very high in comparison to the other countries in the top 5 at 7.3 per 100 inhabitants.
Belarus' suicide rate is 352% of it's homicide rate at 34.4 suicides per 100,000, yet using the Brady Campaign's correlation equals causation model, and the fact that Belarus' rate of civilian firearms ownership is 562% that of it's closest competitor in the top 5 (Kazakhstan, at 1.3 civilian firearms per 100), Belarus' suicide rate in 1999 should have been 19,333 suicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
5. Japan
in 2010, Japan had a suicide rate of 24.6 per 100,000, homicide rate in 2008 of 0.5 per 100k (data more recent than 2008 is not available, but between 1994 and 2008, the homicide rate in Japan fluctuated between a maximum of 0.62 per 100,000, and a minimum of 0.49 per capita), while their rate of civilian gun ownership was a mere 0.6 guns per 100 inhabitants.
Japan's suicide rate is a whopping 4920% that of it's homicide rate, yet their rate of civilian firearms ownership is near the very bottom of the list in the entire world.
In conclusion, using Brady Logic and Japan's statistics applied to the United states, our suicide rate should be 167,000 suicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
In perhaps a vulgar display of irony, the same day of their assertion, the Brady Campaign suggested to a Cleveland, Ohio news anchor who was "doing some digging behind the numbers" in respect to gun violence, that "There are lots of numbers out there and sometimes things don't exactly add up. Let us know what you find!"
Sometimes they don't add up indeed. Perhaps it's time to let them know what we found.
